Bank of Canada Holds The Overnight Policy Rate Steady at 5%

Mortgage Dale (San Hai) Yang 6 Sep

With last Friday’s publication of the anemic second-quarter GDP data, it was obvious that the Bank of Canada would refrain from raising rates at today’s meeting. Economic activity declined by 0.2% in Q2; the first quarter growth estimate decreased from 3.1% to 2.6%.

Today’s press release announced, “The Canadian economy has entered a period of weaker growth, which is needed to relieve price pressures.” The Q2 slowdown in output reflected a “marked weakening in consumption growth and a decline in housing activity, as well as the impact of wildfires in many regions of the country. Household credit growth slowed as the impact of higher rates restrained spending among a wider range of borrowers. Final domestic demand grew by 1% in the second quarter, supported by government spending and a boost to business investment. The tightness in the labour market has continued to ease gradually. However, wage growth has remained around 4% to 5%.”

Lest we get too comfy with a more dovish stance in monetary policy, the central bank warned that the Governing Council remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability.

Inflationary pressures remain broad-based. CPI inflation rose to 3.3% in July after falling to 2.8% in June. Much of the rise in July was caused by the statistical base effect. Nevertheless, current harbingers of inflation remain troubling. The increase in gasoline prices in August will boost inflation soon before easing again. “Year-over-year and three-month measures of core inflation are now running at about 3.5%, indicating little recent downward momentum in underlying inflation. The longer high inflation persists, the greater the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched, making it more difficult to restore price stability.”

The Bank also continues to normalize its balance sheet by letting maturing bonds run off. This quantitative tightening keeps upward pressure on longer-term interest rates.

Tiff Macklem and company concede that excess demand is diminishing and the labour markets are easing. The unemployment rate rose to 5.5% in July, up from a cycle low of 4.9%, and job vacancies continue to decline. Net exports have slowed, and the Chinese economy has weakened sharply. Consumers are tightening their belts as the saving rate rose and household spending slowed markedly in Q1.

Monetary policy actions have a lagged effect on the economy. As mortgage renewals rise, peaking in 2026, the economic impact of higher interest rates will grow. Homeowners renewing mortgages this year are seeing roughly a doubling in interest rates.

The Governing Council will focus on the movement in excess demand, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate price decisions.

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada, though independent, is coming under increasing political pressure. In an unusual move, the premiers of both BC and Ontario have publicly called for a cessation of rate hikes. Even so, the BoC is keeping its hawkish bias to avoid a bond rally that could trigger another boost in the housing market, similar to what we saw last April. The government bond yield is hovering just under 5%, having breached that level recently with the release of robust US economic data.

There are two more meetings before the end of this year, and many are expecting another rate hike in one of those meetings. The odds of this are less than even, given the downward momentum in the economy.

The central bank’s next decision is due October 25, after two releases of jobs, inflation and retail data, gross domestic product numbers for July and an August estimate.

How to Save with a Variable Mortgage？

Mortgage Dale (San Hai) Yang 15 Feb

How to Save with a Variable Mortgage.
When it comes to mortgages, the age-old question remains: “Should I go with a variable or fixed-rate?”. To make an informed decision, it is important to look at the type of buyer and the historical trends.

When it comes to variable versus fixed-rate, it is important to understand what these mortgages are based off of. Fixed mortgages are so named as they are based on a fixed interest rate that is set for the duration of the term with fixed payments. On the other hand, variable-rate mortgages fluctuate with the Prime Rate. This can either mean fluctuations in your payment, or if you choose to have set payments, the interest portion of the payment.

In the last 10 years, the prime lending rate has gone from 2.50% to 3.95% and now sits at 2.45% as of January 2022. Due to recent events, these rates have seen even more of a downturn providing huge benefits to new borrowers looking to pay as little as possible.

While a variable-rate mortgage is linked to the Prime Rate, which could cause fluctuations, historically the choice of a variable rate mortgage over a fixed term has allowed borrowers to save in interest costs.

However, due to the uncertainty and potential fluctuations that can occur with a variable-rate mortgage, it comes down to the borrowers comfort. Some individuals have no wiggle room in their budget for potential changes in mortgage payments, or they do not like the uncertainty. For these clients, a fixed-rate would be the best choice.

On the other hand, clients who qualify for variable-rate mortgages have a unique opportunity to take advantage of lower interest rates. If you have a variable-rate mortgage, you can either set a fixed-payment so that, if the interest rate drops, it means you are paying more on your principal loan each month. Or, if you have flexible payments, you may see your monthly payments drop in accordance to decreases in the Prime Rate. However, since every 10% increase in payment can save three years off the amortization of a five-year term, having fixed payments provide extra benefits. After all, extra pennies towards the principle can help make a difference over the life of a 25 or 30 year mortgage.

Let’s look at the following example:

Amy and Jake have a balance owing of $300,000 on their mortgage with a variable rate at Prime minus .80%, (giving us 1.65%) with current payments set at $703 bi-weekly. The mortgage matures in 24 months but they are considering locking in for a new five-year term at 3.34%. New payments would be $739. As much as they love their home, they are considering a move in the next couple years.

When reviewing this mortgage, it is more beneficial for them to keep the remaining variable-rate in place for two years. However, if they set the payments based on 3.34% or $739 bi-weekly, this allows them to pay an extra $72 on their mortgage per month. In 24 months, the savings on interest is $4,000 and their outstanding balance is $4,000 less than by staying in the fixed rate.

Another benefit to variable-rate mortgages is that, if you choose to sell before the mortgage term is up, the penalty is typically only three months interest as opposed to much heavier interest rate differential (IRD) calculations used to determine fixed-rate mortgage penalties.

With this strategy they don’t have to feel pressure to lock-in today, plus they can continue taking advantage of the lower variable rate.

If your mortgage is maturing in the next 90-180 days and you’re not quite sure what to do, it is a good idea to contact a Dominion Lending Centres Mortgage Professional. Not only can they provide tips for your existing variable-rate mortgage to help save you money, but they can help you assess whether fixed-rate is right for you or if you should make the switch.

First-Time Home Buyer

Mortgage Dale (San Hai) Yang 15 Feb

First-Time Home Buyer.
Being on the path to purchasing your first home is one of the most exciting and most rewarding moments in life! While people don’t always dream of the perfect mortgage, we do grow up thinking of a white picket fence and our dream home. Even if you imagined your dream home as a 6-bedroom mansion, we all have to start somewhere!

Regardless of whether you’re buying an apartment, townhouse, rancher or two-story family house, there is nothing quite like your first home. Not only is it an amazing accomplishment and a great sense of freedom and security, but buying your first home is also a great step into the real estate market and can provide you equity and a leg-up towards future expansion.

are you ready to own a home?
Before you jump on in, there are some things you should ask yourself. As amazing as it is to be a first-time home buyer, it is important to remember that this is likely the largest financial decision you will ever make. There are a few questions you can ask yourself to make sure you’re ready to take this incredible leap!

Are you financially stable?
Do you have the financial management skills and discipline to handle this large of a purchase?
Are you ready to devote the time to regular home maintenance?
Are you aware of all the costs and responsibilities that come with being a homeowner? Let’s find out!
COSTS OF HOME OWNERSHIP:
There are two major costs of home ownership – let’s make sure you’re ready to take it on!

Upfront Costs: The initial amount of money you need to buy a home, including down payment, closing costs and any applicable taxes.

Ongoing Costs: The continued cost of living in a home you own, including mortgage payments, property taxes, insurance, utility bills, condominium fees (if applicable) and routine repairs and maintenance. It is also important to keep in mind potential major repairs, such as roof replacement or foundation repair, that may be needed now or in the future. In addition, if you choose a property that is not hooked up to municipal services (such as water or sewer) there may be additional maintenance costs to consider.

buying your first home
If you’ve decided to take the plunge, you now need to start by figuring out what you can afford. Fortunately, there are all kinds of calculators and tools available. A great place to start is the free My Mortgage Toolbox app which can help you find a mortgage broker in your area. A mortgage broker is a great alternative to traditional banks and can help you find the best rate in the market, as well as save you time by doing the leg work for you!

Regardless of whether you choose a mortgage broker or traditional bank, the first step begins with your down payment.

SECURING YOUR DOWN PAYMENT
If you are ready to get your first mortgage, you will need a down payment. The minimum down payment on any mortgage in Canada is 5 percent but putting down more is beneficial whenever possible as it will lower the amount being borrowed. However, if you can only afford the minimum that is perfectly okay! Just remember, if you are putting down less than 20 per cent to purchase your home, default insurance will be mandatory to protect the investment.

Ideally, individuals looking to purchase their first home will have built up a nest egg of savings that they can apply towards a down payment. However, we know this is not possible for everyone so if you don’t have it all saved, don’t worry! Besides being a vital savings plan for retirement, RRSPs can be a great resource for first-time home buyers and can be cashed in up to $25,000 individually towards a down payment. In fact, most mortgage brokers will tell you nearly half of all first-time buyers use their RRSPs to help with the payment. Those first buyers who choose this option will have 15 years to pay it back and can defer these payments for up to two years if necessary. Always remember though, deferring a payment can increase the time to pay off the loan and you will still owe the full amount!

Another option for securing your down payment is a gift from a family member, typically a parent. All that is required for this is a signed Gift Letter from the parent (or family member providing the funds) which states that the money does not have to be repaid and a snapshot showing that the gifted funds have been transferred.

MORTGAGE PRE-QUALIFICATION
The first step to realizing the dream of owning your first home is pre-qualification. This process provides you with an estimate of how much you can afford based on your own report of your financial situation. The benefit of this is that it sets the baseline for a realistic price range and allows you to start looking for that perfect home within your means! Now this process is not a mortgage approval, or even a pre-approval but it helps to establish your budget. You must supply an overview of your financial history (income, assets, debt and credit score) but the real requirements come with the pre-approval process where you submit your actual documentation.

MORTGAGE PRE-APPROVAL
This is the meat of the pre-purchase process and determines the actual home price you can afford. The difference between this and pre-qualification is that pre-approval requires submission and verification of your financial history to ensure the most accurate budget to fit your needs.

Pre-Approval can help determine:

The maximum amount you can afford to spend
The monthly mortgage payment associated with your purchase price range
The mortgage rate for your first term
Not only does getting pre-approved make the search easier for you, but helps your real estate agent find the best home in your price range. Temptation will always be to start looking at the very top of your budget, but it is important to remember that there will be fees, such as mandatory closing costs, which can range from 1 to 4% of the purchase price. Factoring these into your maximum budget can help you narrow down a home that is entirely affordable and ensure future financial stability and security.

While getting pre-approved doesn’t commit you to a single lender, but it does guarantee the rate offered to you will be locked in from 90 to 120 days which helps if interest rates rise while you are still shopping. If interest rates actually decrease, you would still be offered the lower rate. Another benefit to pre-approval is that, when it comes time to purchase, pre-approval lets the seller know that securing financing should not be an issue. This is extremely beneficial in competitive markets where lots of offers may be coming in.

PROTECTING YOUR PRE-APPROVAL
Refrain from having additional credit reports pulled once you have been pre-approved
Refrain from applying for new credit, closing off credit accounts or making large purchases until after the sale is complete
Be prepared to show a papertrail – any unusual deposits in your bank account may require explanation. Also if your down payment comes from savings, the bank will want 90 days of statements to ensure the funds are accounted for.
FINANCING APPROVAL
You’re almost there! Financial approval is the last step to getting your mortgage and buying your first home! You will need to keep in mind that just because you are pre-approved, it doesn’t guarantee that the final mortgage application is approved. Being entirely candid with your home-buying team throughout the process will be vital as hidden debt or buying a big ticket item during your 90-120 day pre-approval can change the amount you are able to borrow. It is best to refrain from any major purchases (such as a new car) or life changes (such as changing jobs) until after closing and you have the keys to your new home!

In some cases, pre-approval may not be guaranteed for reasons outside of your control. For instance, if the home was appraised below the purchase price, is a heritage home or has safety issues like asbestos, the lender may deny financing. Find a realtor that will be your advocate while showing you homes and always utilize an appraisal and inspection from foundation to roof to ensure that you do not encounter any hidden roadblocks!

CLOSING DAY
Phew, you made it. Closing day is one of the most exciting moments where all the house hunting and paperwork really pays off! It is on this day that you will want to make use of your lawyer or a notary.

To complete the process of closing the sale, your lender gives your lawyer the mortgage money. You would then pay out the down payment (minus the deposit) and the closing costs (typically 1 to 4% of the purchase price). From there, the lawyer or notary then pays the seller, registers the home in your name and gives you the deed and the keys!

Congratulations, you are now a home owner!!